First, let’s take a collective breath and look at this thing objectively.

Here’s the quick and dirty:  Currently, this flu does not look like it is able to cause a pandemic in it’s current form.  A human strain of influenza virus picked up genetic info from a pig virus. (Viruses do exchange genetic material for greater variability and survival.  Bird and pig viruses are common species we are concerned with.)  This has the potential to be dangerous because the virus now is in a form the human immune system does not recognize, allowing the virus to take over and kill.  Most viruses become less virulent (deadly) with each new host.  Viruses, like most life forms, have a drive to reproduce the species and killing the host does not help this.  This is what is happening with this swine flu: potentially deadly at first, but has become less and less so.  Also, viruses do not do as well in warm moist climates, which is the season we are entering in the US.

Best case scenario: This strain could die out over the summer, problem over. 

Worst case scenario:  The virus stays around, mutates into a form that does not become less virulent and is highly infectious.  Humans would be in trouble.  This is not meant to alarm anyone but the reality is due to short life cycles viruses have high rates of mutation, so it is a possibility.  It could also mutate into something even less infectious.  Fall and winter of 2009-10 will have the answer.

Here’s the long version:

There are essentially 4 categories of reactions to viruses and other pathogens.

1: The person does not have a susceptibility to it and the body deals with it with little or no symptoms.

2: The person is healthy but has a susceptibility to it.  They respond with an intense reaction and recover quickly or die.

3: The person is not as healthy, has a susceptibility to it, reacts, but in a less effective way and is not able to completely rid themselves of the virus.  They will go on to have chronic symptoms and conditions, like asthma, chronic fatigue, etc.  These are the people who will say they haven’t been the same since they had that flu or infection.

4: The person who has no ability to respond to the pathogen either because of already in poor health or because their immune system has no idea how to react to something it has never seen.

When we are talking about death rates in the pandemic range as in the 1918 FLu, the fourth category is the predominant reaction.  The next question should be why would a relatively healthy person’s immune system not be able to react to a virus.

The answer is because it is unlike anything the body has seen before.  We are surrounded by viruses, bacteria, and fungus all the time.  We are literally covered with them and filled with them every day and it is not a problem.  Due to frequent exposure to these pathogens the species has adapted an immune system that can keep them from being a problem.  It has seen them before or something similar and knows how to deal with them.

When the pathogen looks like nothing our species’ immune system has ever seen we do not know how to react properly and the virus takes over.  This is what happened to Native Americans when Europeans came to America.  The Native Americans were exposed to viruses and bacteria they had not evolved with and their immunes systems were not able to react in an effective way.  (I am not saying Native Americans are a different species.  That subset of the species did not evolve with the same set of pathogens as Europeans.)  

Viruses are constantly adapting and evolving.  They stay a little ahead of us because of their more rapid life cycle.  There are many different strands of influenza virus.  The human immune system is used to seeing the human version.  Pigs, birds, and other animals have their version and strands of influenza virus.  Sometimes these viruses that affect separate species end up in the same host and they exchange genetic information.  This has the potential to create a virus that can infect humans but does not look like anything the human immune system has seen before.  This is what has happened with the swine flu.

This is only a problem for the greater population if the virus is very infectious (passed easy from person to person) and does not decrease in virulence (intensity of infection).  This does not seem to be the case with this flu. Subsequent infections are not as deadly.  If it were the case, the death rate would continue to as high as it was initially.  

Viruses, like other life forms, have a drive to reproduce to perpetuate the species.  Killing all potential hosts does not bode well for the life span of the virus’ species.  Typically they decrease in strength each time the virus is passed to a new host.  This does seem to be the case with this flu.  Again, initial hosts died from the infection, but subsequent infections are not as deadly.

So what is going to happen to the swine flu?  What is likely is that the virus will become weak enough that it does not pose much of a threat.  Viruses do not do as well in warm moist weather, which is the season the US is heading into.  In a few weeks, the swine flu scare will be out of the headlines and we will be focused on the NBA finals and Stanley Cup.  The virus may die off in the summer.  That’s the best case scenario.

Viruses have a very short life cycle, increasing the chances for mutations.  The worst case scenario is the virus may survive the summer and potentially could mutate into a form that is more infectious and does not decrease in deadliness with each new host.  This would be very bad for humans.  In past epidemics and pandemics it is the second and third version of the virus that is the most deadly.  Hopefully it will go the other way and mutate into a form that is less infectious.  The fall and winter cold and flu season of 2009-2010 will hold the answer.  

  Either way, your best bet is to do things to increase your health and vitality.  See your local naturopathic physician for more information.

For more info on the flu go to http://www.hersculaboratoryflu.org/